End new oil and gas projects to reach net-zero emissions by 2050: IEA

IEA has proposed to end new oil and gas projects to reach net-zero emissions by 2050

No investment in new oil and gas projects should be approved if the world is to reach net-zero emission targets by 2050 and limit warming to 1.5-degree celsius according to the International Energy Agency’s (IEA) report. It has also predicted that by 2035, there will be no sales of new internal combustion engine passenger cars, and by 2040, the global electricity sector will have already reached net-zero emissions.

The report is the world’s first comprehensive study on how to transition to a net zero energy system by 2050. The special report is designed to inform the high-level negotiations that will take place at the 26th Conference of the Parties (COP26) of the United Nations Climate Change Framework Convention in Glasgow in November.

Are the commitments made by countries enough?

According to the report, commitments made by countries till date are not enough to achieve the global pathway to net-zero by 2050. More countries have joined the race to net-zero emissions, however, most pledges are not underpinned by new-term policies and measures, it noted.

It revealed that even if the countries successfully achieve their pledges, it would leave around 22 billion tonnes of CO2 emissions worldwide by 2050.

The report emphasized that advanced economies need to reach net zero before emerging markets and developing economies and assist others to fulfil their targets.

“The clean energy transition is for and about people,” said Dr Fatih Birol, the IEA Executive Director. “Our Roadmap shows that the enormous challenge of rapidly transitioning to a net zero energy system is also a huge opportunity for our economies. The transition must be fair and inclusive, leaving nobody behind. We have to ensure that developing economies receive the financing and technological know-how they need to build out their energy systems to meet the needs of their expanding populations and economies in a sustainable way.”

Massive deployment of clean energy

The pathway stressed the need to scale up renewable energy technologies. It suggested increasing solar and wind capacity rapidly this decade and reaching annual additions of 630 GW of solar photovoltaics and 390 GW of wind by 2030. This new estimate is four times more than the record levels set in 2020.

“This report is a blaring siren for governments across the world that they can no longer drag their feet and need to get serious about deploying renewables. The scale of wind energy ramp-up needed to achieve net zero by 2050 is massive and can’t be overstated,” said Joyce Lee, Head of Policy and Projects at the Global Wind Energy Council (GWEC)

According to the pathway, the share of fossil fuels in the global energy supply would need to fall from around four-fifths currently to one-fifth by 2050. Solar would become the single biggest energy source — or 20% of global energy demand followed by wind power.

It also found out that two‐thirds of the total energy supply in 2050 will be from wind, solar, bioenergy, geothermal and hydro energy.

The IEA’s report noted that the investment and spending received by countries for economic recovery post-COVD-19 should align with the net-zero pathway. To accelerate the electricity sector transition to solar and wind, it recommended targets and competitive auctions of renewables. It also suggested fossil fuel subsidy phase-out, carbon pricing and other market reforms to ensure appropriate price signals.

Stake on new technologies in 2050

According to the report, reaching net zero by 2050 requires rapid deployment of new technologies that are not in the market yet. Most of the CO2 emissions reduction through 2030 in the pathway comes from technologies that are already in the picture. However, for the 2050 pathways only half of the reductions come from technologies that are currently at the “demonstration or prototype phase.”

Innovation over the next ten years should be accompanied by research and development (R&D) and better infrastructure that the technologies will need. This comprises new pipelines to transport captured CO2 emissions and systems to move hydrogen around and between ports and industrial zones.

The report suggested reprioritizing the government’s spending by investing more in electrification, hydrogen, bioenergy and carbon capture, utilisation and storage. These critical areas receive only one-third of the R&D funding.

It recommended mobilising around USD 90 billion of public money globally to complete a portfolio of demonstration projects before 2030. Currently, only USD 25 billion is budgeted for that period. The deployment of new technologies will create new major industries, thereby boosting commercial and employment opportunities.

Emission reductions linked to consumer choices

According to the pathway, 55% of the cumulative emissions reductions are linked to consumer choices such as purchasing an electric vehicle and using energy-efficient technologies in the house. Behavioural changes such as replacing car trips with walking, cycling or public transport will also help to provide around 4% of the cumulative emissions reductions.

It proposed that emissions reductions should go hand-in-hand with energy access for all by 2030. One of the significant parts of the pathway is to provide electricity to around 785 million people who have no access to it and clean cooking solutions to 2.6 billion people.

This costs around $40 billion a year, equal to around 1% of average annual energy sector investment. It also brings major health benefits through reductions in indoor air pollution, cutting the number of premature deaths by 2.5 million a year.