Another COVID story

As I was travelling in the half-empty Mumbai suburban local, many thoughts came up in my mind.

“Will I ever see Mumbai again?” (Eventually I did)

It was March 23 and Maharashtra was becoming a hotspot of COVID.

A day before I booked my flight for my hometown-Dehradun. Life never felt so slow-paced in Mumbai. The train, which was always filled with people more than its capacity, felt empty.

I was never fascinated about Mumbai as many people in my college did but the city makes you a different person.

I was a software engineer in Gurgaon having a comfortable life, enjoying the perks of corporate life. Coding, testing became a part of my life which I never enjoyed.

“Should I quit the job?” I asked myself.

I have been in this dilemma for so many times but never got the courage to implement it.

“It has been two years,” I sighed.

Whenever I felt this conflict of quitting the job, I used to watch ‘Tamasha’, one of my favourite films. Watching ‘Tamasha’ takes me down the memory lane when I had different ambitions in life. Unlike Ranbir Kapoor, I was very good at studies and like everybody, I opted for Science.

I enjoyed studying science. It was fascinating, innovative and logical. Being the topper of the class, my teachers were full of praises for me.

“But life changes once you exit the school gate,” said one of my teachers.

It did happen. Life changed.

I was pursuing engineering but something always bothered me.

“Do I really want to do it?”

With this question, I completed four years of engineering. I was not bad at it. But I never enjoyed it. The grades matched my hard-working attitude and I continued to get my scholarship for four years.

During college, I was more involved in extracurricular activities than performing new experiments. I was a part of a drama club, participated in sports and organized many conferences. Apart from that I visited Delhi’s historical monuments, ate the finest street food at Chandni Chowk and trekked in Uttarakhand and Himachal.

After four years of college came the corporate life which was quite fascinating at first but it didn’t work out well.

After completing two years of corporate life, I decided to quit and this time I did it. I moved to Mumbai to pursue a Postgraduate Diploma in Journalism and Mass Communication.

And this felt right.

September shows positive departure for three consecutive years from normal rainfall

Photo: Wikimedia Commons

During the southwest monsoon 2021, India received 874.6 mm rainfall, about 99.32% of the normal southwest monsoon rainfall. The country received "normal" rainfall during the four-month monsoon season from June to September, IMD said. September recorded a positive departure of 34.96% rainfall due to circulations contributed from the Bay of Bengal, ending with Cyclone Gulab which helped to fill the deficit formed during the months of July and August.

According to IMD, the season also saw the formation of 12 cyclonic circulations— low pressure (LP), well-marked low-pressure area (WML), depression, deep depression, and cyclone—which are critical during the rainfall period. June saw one LP, July recorded two LP and one WML. August recorded two LPAs. However, September recorded one cyclone (Gulab), one deep depression and two WML, and one LP. 

Deep depression was formed during 12-15 September and cyclonic storm Gulab was formed during 24-28 September.  

The withdrawal of the southwest monsoon from some parts of northwest India is likely to begin from October 6, said IMD. The normal date for the withdrawal of monsoon from the country is September 17. Last year, the withdrawal of the monsoon from northwest India began on September 28.

Onset of Southwest Monsoon

The southwest monsoon made an onset over Kerala on June 3 and covered the entire country on July 13- five days later than usual.  The monsoon normally covers the entire country by July 8, however, the trend was different last year, when it covered the entire country by June 26.

According to IMD, the formation and movement of the cyclone Tauktae, over the Arabian Sea (during 14-19 May) and severe Cyclonic storm Yaas over the Bay of Bengal (during 23 to 28th May) helped to increase cross-equatorial flow and the onset of monsoon. 

 

In the last five years, the maximum delay to cover the entire country was recorded in 2018, moreover, the same year recorded the earliest onset of the monsoon. Apart from 2018, the early onset of the monsoon was also recorded in 2017 and for the rest, it was usually delayed (except 2020), during the past five years.

Three consecutive years of normal/above normal rain

India received 867.8 mm of rainfall during the southwest monsoon which is 99% of its long period average (LPA).  LPA is the average of rainfall received by India over a 50-year period between 1951 and 2001. The current LPA of all southwest monsoon rainfall is 880.6 mm.

While 2019 recorded the highest percentage (110%) of its LPA followed by 2020, this year’s LPA is the third highest in the last five years. 

According to the India Meteorological Department (IMD), the country received "normal" rainfall during the four-month southwest monsoon season from June to September. This is for the third consecutive year that the country has recorded rainfall in the normal or above-normal category. Rainfall was above normal in 2019 and 2020. 

Rainfall over the northwest and central region was normal while the south peninsula region recorded above normal rainfall. However, it was below normal over the east and northeast regions. 

The south peninsula has been receiving normal or above normal rainfall for the last three years, while the east and northeast region has been receiving normal or below normal rain for the past five years.

September shows positive departure for three consecutive years

While the current rainfall number (99% of LPA) seems to suggest normal rainfall, in reality, the rainfall varied widely across the four monsoon months. 

The rainfall over the country as a whole was 110% in June, 93%, and 76% in July and August respectively. However, the shortfall of July and August was compensated in September which recorded rainfall 135% of the LPA. 

India recorded the maximum departure in September (+34.96%) and the minimum in August (-24.13%). September has been showing a positive departure from the normal rainfall (170.2 mm) for the last three years, recording the maximum positive departure in 2019 (+52%). 

On the other hand, August has recorded the maximum negative departure this year in comparison to the last five years. Last year August recorded excess rainfall (+26.6%) and in the previous four years, it observed normal rainfall.

Trends of southwest monsoon in meteorological subdivisions

According to IMD, out of the total 36 meteorological subdivisions, 20 subdivisions received normal seasonal rainfall, 10 subdivisions received excess rainfall and six subdivisions received deficient seasonal rainfall.

Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram & Tripura, Assam and Meghalaya, Arunachal Pradesh, Jammu & Kashmir and Ladakh, West Uttar Pradesh, and Lakshadweep are the six divisions that received deficient rainfall. Out of these six subdivisions, three lie in northeast India. 

The number of rainfall-deficient regions has increased by 200% this year as compared to 2019. It has been increasing for three consecutive years, with 2018 observing the most rainfall-deficient regions (11).

Additionally this year 10 regions received excess rainfall which is more than that observed in 2016, 2017 and 2018. West Rajasthan, Haryana, Delhi, Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, north interior Karnataka, Gangetic West Bengal, Konkan and Goa, Marathwada and Andaman and Nicobar recorded excess rainfall during the monsoon season.

Developing countries reported most weather-related deaths while developed economies incurred most economic losses: WMO Report

Photo: Ny Menghor on Unsplash

More than 90% of the deaths caused by weather, climate, and water hazards between 1970-2019 occurred in developing countries, while the developed nations incurred more than half of the economic losses, according to a report by World Meteorological Organization (WMO).

The WMO Atlas of Mortality and Economic Losses from Weather, Climate, and Water Extremes (1970 – 2019) is a comprehensive review of mortality and economic losses from weather, water, and climate extremes. The analysis is based on the data obtained from Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters (CRED) Emergency Events Database (EM-DAT) which contains data on disasters associated with several types of natural hazards.

Number of deaths decreased by three-fold

According to the report, from 1970 to 2019, weather, climate, and water hazards accounted for 50% of all disasters, 45% of all reported deaths and 74% of all reported economic losses.

It said that the number of disasters has increased by a factor of five over the past five decades fuelled by climate change, more extreme weather and improved reporting. However, the number of deaths due to these events has decreased by three-fold due to improved early warnings and disaster mangement. Death tolls fell from over 50,000 deaths in the 1970s to less than 20,000 in the 2010s.

“A disaster-related to either a weather, climate or water hazard occurred every day on average over the 50 years – killing 115 people and causing US$ 202 million in losses daily,” it added. It found out that the reported losses in the last decade were seven times the amount reported from 1970–1979.

Drought led to the largest human and economic losses

Amongst the top 10 disasters in the report, the largest human losses were caused by drought in the last 50 years followed by storms, floods, and extreme temperature. In terms of economic losses, the top 10 events include storms and floods.

According to the WMO Atlas, three of the costliest 10 disasters occurred in 2017-Hurricanes Harvey, Maria, and Irma which accounted for 35% of the total economic losses.

Although storms had the highest human and economic toll, floods were the most common hazards, it said.

Asia accounts for nearly half of the weather-related deaths globally

Asia reported more than three thousand weather-related disasters from 1970-2019 that accounted for nearly half of weather-related deaths (47%) globally and US$ 1.2 trillion in reported economic damages, according to the report.

Moreover, the top 10 recorded disasters in Asia account for 70% (680837 deaths) of the total lives lost and 22% of economic losses for the region, it said. Amongst the top 10 disasters in Asia, three storms were reported from India (in 1971, 1977, and 1999), while Bangladesh reported the most number of deaths in the continent in the last 50 years.

The report revealed that most of the disasters in Asia were linked to floods and storms. Storms in the continent resulted in 72% of the lives lost and floods led to the greatest economic losses, it said.

The way ahead

“The number of weather, climate, and water extremes are increasing and will become more frequent and severe in many parts of the world as a result of climate change,” said WMO Secretary-General Prof. Petteri Taalas.

He said that more lives are being saved due to installation of early warning systems however as the population curve is moving upward, more people will be exposed to disaster risk. Moreover, only half of the 193 members of WMO have multi-hazard early warning systems and there are severe gaps in weather and hydrological observing networks in Africa, some parts of Latin America and in Pacific and Caribbean island states, the report stated.

Mami Mizutori, Special Representative of the Secretary-General for Disaster Risk Reduction and Head of UNDRR called for more international cooperation to tackle the problem of displacement due to floods, storms, and droughts. She also recommended greater investment in disaster in risk management to ensure that climate change adaptation is integrated into national and local disaster risk reduction strategies.

“The overlap of the COVID-19 pandemic with many other natural and manmade hazards, especially extreme weather events during the last 18 months demonstrates the need for greater investment in disaster risk reduction and a multi-hazard approach to disaster risk management and early warning systems to reduce risks and strengthen preparedness for multiple disaster scenarios,” she said.

‘Chipko’ village Raini, is vulnerable to slope failure activities: Report

Field Photograph showing the 40 m damaged road below Raini village| Photo: UDRP report

During the survey, wide cracks were seen in the walls and floors of many houses indicating active slope movement in the area

At present Uttarakhand’s Raini village, the birthplace of the Chipko Movement, is vulnerable and requires adequate slope stabilization work to prevent slope failure activities, according to a report by Uttarakhand Disaster Recovery Program (UDRP-AF). It reveals that if appropriate measures are not taken, the village will witness mass movement activities in saturated, dynamic conditions and toe erosion by rivers.

The geological and geotechnical report over Raini Village also includes a review of the sites proposed by the local administration for rehabilitation. The survey for the report was conducted by a three-member team of the UDRP-AF- Venkateswarlu (Geotech expert), G.V.R.G Acharyulu (geologist), and Manish Semwal (slope stabilization expert).

What is the present condition of Raini village?

According to the report, at present Raini village is facing “serious slope stability” issues. Not only the whole inhabited area is affected by active subsidence (sudden sinking of the earth’s surface) but also toe erosion can be seen on the downslope.

During the survey, wide cracks were seen in the walls and floors of many houses indicating active slope movement in the area, it says.

The report points out that toe erosion of the slope was observed by experts during the site visit. After the flash floods, the discharge of water in the river channel was increased which has disturbed the base of the hill slope resulting in toe erosion, it notes.

To arrest toe erosion, the report advocates channelizing the entire course of both the Rishi Ganga and Dhauli Ganga rivers and construction of check dams (of 2-3 m in height) at an interval of 300 mm.

Located at the confluence of the Rishi Ganga and Dhauli Ganga rivers, Raini village was struck by a flash flood on February 7, 2021. The foothills of the village were flooded damaging many houses and structures. Rishiganga Hydroelectric Project operated by National Thermal Power Corporation Ltd (NTPC) was completely destroyed by the floods. Officially, 206 people went missing and 88 bodies were recovered.

In June the village was once again hit by floods, completely washing away the lower part of the village. 40 meters of the Joshimath-Malari highway, a significant point of communication was broken and engulfed in the Dhauli Ganga.

To reconstruct the road, the authorities planned to cut the hill slope close to the Raini village. According to the report, this action will modify the hill slope due to which loose, unstable and overhanging boulders on the slope surface will pose danger to houses located on the hill slope as well as passing traffic and pedestrian. The report suggests minimum slope modification for road widening.

It recommends, construction of a suitably designed retaining wall of appropriate height along the road at the base of the uphill slope to control the mass movements. It also suggests construction of contour drainage in different levels from the top and weep holes in the retaining walls.

Are the rehabilitation sites suitable?

The geological and geotechnical team inspected two rehabilitation sites proposed by the local administration for the rehabilitation of Raini village. The suitability of the site is judged on the basis of visual observations and it can be changed upon detailed geotech/geophysical observation, the report says.

Rehabilitation site 1| Photo: UDRP Report

One of the sites is located at a distance of 1.5 km from the main Joshimath-Malari road near

Dhak village on the Kundli-Khola Gram on Karchi road. According to the report, this site is not suitable for rehabilitation.

At present, the proposed site is vulnerable and requires adequate slope stabilization work to control slope failure activities, the report reveals. To rehabilitate the village, hill cutting will be required to construct houses that may result in mass movements, it notes.

Rehabilitation site 1| Photo: UDRP Report

Another site reviewed by the team is located near Bhavishya Badri Temple at an elevation of 1750 mean sea level approx. The distance of the site from the main Joshimath-Malari Road is about 16 Km.

The report claims that this site is suitable for rehabilitation. However, there are many connectivity issues such as only bridle road is available and unavailability of mobile networks.

From informal workers to social security- just transition in coal districts is a tough row to hoe

 A majority of workers employed in old mines are informal workers|Photo: Amir Arabshahi by Unsplash

With complex social and economic scenarios, energy transition is a major need for India. But it is equally difficult to make this transition equitable.

According to a recent study, close to 40% of districts in India have some form of coal dependency. They are either home to coal workers or pensioners, or collect District Mineral Foundation (DMF) revenues, or have benefitted from Corporate Social Responsibility(CSR) spending, the study says.

A report by International Forum for Environment, Sustainability & Technology (iFOREST) also shows that there are 120 districts (out of the 718 districts) in the country with a sizable presence of fossil fuel or fossil fuel-dependent industries. It emphasizes that policy and planning for transition in the coal sector should be prioritised from a just transition perspective.

To boost India's ambition to reduce carbon emissions, more and more states are now committed to investing in no new coal-fired projects. But for two coal-rich states, Jharkhand and Chhattisgarh, under the energy transition, many questions arise before adopting renewable energy by abandoning coal-generated power -What will be the future of crores of daily wage labourers working in coal plants? How could workers be trained for this change in their employment? How to achieve an economically beneficial solution of implementing a just transition?

To answer these questions Carboncopy organized a webinar on Wednesday. The webinar was attended by Srestha Banerjee, Director of Just Transition, at iFOREST, Shweta Narayan, Global Climate & Health Campaigner at Health Care Without Harm, and Vaibhav Chaturvedi, Fellow at CEEW. The session was moderated by senior journalist Hridayesh Joshi.

Informal workers- a major concern in just transition

Talking specifically about Jharkhand and Chattisgarh, Banerjee said that the biggest problem in these two states is that the coal areas are situated at such locations where the poverty level is high and social infrastructure is extremely bad. Particularly in Jharkhand, there are many old coal mines approximately more than 100 years old engaging a lot of workers, she adds. Lakhs of people are completely dependent on coal for their livelihood. However, a majority of workers employed in these old mines are informal workers, she says.

There is a large unorganized labour force in Jharkhand- almost three times that of organized workers, she stresses. Since there is no inventory of these informal workers it would be a daunting task to plan reskilling and retraining of these workers for just transition, says Banerjee.

“The biggest problem in equitable energy conversion in a large country like India,” she says, “is how we will compensate informal workers (without any inventory) dependent on the coal economy when they lose their jobs”.

Banerjee states that the average monthly income of a family of at least five members of workers in the unorganized sector does not exceed Rs 10,000. “According to the 'Multi-Dimensional Poverty Index', more than 50% of the population in coal-economy states is poor. They have neither basic facilities for education nor health. When we talk about coal transition, we have to first deal with the multifaceted problems of coal daily wage workers,” she says.

Speaking about the development of primary sectors like agriculture, fisheries and forestry near coal areas, the director says that these sectors are highly neglected in coal districts as the state’s GDP is highly reliant on coal. Moreover, unfavourable conditions like low water table and acidic soil are not suitable for agriculture in many areas close to coal mines.

“Undo the historic injustice”

While a lot has been said about transformation, more focus should be on the impact of coal mines on the environment and who will compensate for it, says Narayan. She stressed on the need to give priority to the expectations of the people in the process of equitable transformation of energy and fix accountability for the damage caused by coal.

“In all the health studies we have conducted in the coal sector, it has been found that malnutrition is the highest among all mining-related areas. If development is taking place then it is very important to ask the question- who will bear the cost of the safety of people who work in coal mines?”

There is no talk about what provisions are being made regarding social security, she emphasizes, questioning, how will the marginalization of the social system be compensated?

The coal industry is a 'parasitic' type of industry and from a social perspective, there is a lot of caste discrimination, she says. “In just transition, we have to undo the historic injustice we did while building coal-based power systems”

Transition to low carbon economy is economic transformation

CEEW Fellow Vaibhav Chaturvedi, while referring to the economic aspects related to just transition, said that transition to low carbon economy is literally economic transformation.

Terming just transition as a good opportunity, Vaibhav said, “I strongly believe that in every crisis lies an opportunity. Just transition is a crisis but it also has opportunities. In just transition, we are talking 40-50 years ahead. Certainly, the picture of India's future will be completely different at that time” he says.

According to an estimate quoted by him, even with economic growth of 5.5% between 2015 and 2065 the per capita income will be around $14000 by 2065. Currently, the per capita income is $2000.

To achieve the target of net-zero, Chaturvedi suggests reducing the share of fossil fuels in total energy generation to less than 5%.

Empty Promises: Analysis reveals rich countries have no plan to fulfil their climate finance pledges

Photo: Gyan Shahane on Unsplash

The commitments made by rich countries to deliver the promised $100 billion annually to support climate efforts in developing countries in 2009, still fall short of the target, according to an analysis by CARE- a green aid and development organization. Twenty-four national plans analysed by CARE reveals that not a single rich country provided information on what they consider their fair share of the $100 billion target and how and when they would deliver it.

Under the report titled, ‘Hollow Commitments’, CARE analyzed the most recent official finance plans submitted by 24 countries to the UNFCCC and ranked them on a point system. 

Uncertainty over commitments made by developed countries

According to the analysis, developed countries have no adequate plan in the pipeline to ensure that they would be able to fulfil their commitments.

The report points out that out of the 24 countries examined, only three countries-Luxembourg, New Zealand and the United Kingdom, have put forward a plan to increase their climate finance across multiple years.

While a majority of countries did not provide any quantitative information regarding indicative future levels of support, only five countries indicated that their finances will remain constant.

Moreover, adaptation efforts in developing countries remain severely underfunded, not only in absolute terms but also as a percentage of total climate finance, it says. There is a threat to life and livelihoods of millions of people across the globe if the developed countries fail to finance urgently needed climate action.

“Developing nations are experiencing an increased frequency and magnitude of disasters and are unable to cope, let alone thrive. If no clear finance roadmap is in place, poor countries will continue registering deaths from climate-induced disasters and the world will continue to be unequal, because this is not just about numbers, it is also about people’s lives,” said Chikondi Chabvuta, Southern Africa Advocacy Lead with CARE Malawi, at the report’s launch.

The Paris Agreement prioritises support for the least developed countries (LDCs) and small island developing states (SIDS). However, not a single rich country provided detailed quantitative information outlining the support it would provide for LDCs and SIDS.

The agreement also specifies that developed countries seek a balance between support for mitigation and adaptation.  Currently, only 25% of international climate finance is spent on adaptation and the report shows that a 50/50 balance remains out of sight, with only two countries- Ireland and New Zealand recognizing the objectives.

Additionally, the decisions under COP24 called on developed countries to provide indicative information on the gender responsiveness of their future support. As per the report, these details are “routinely lacking” and the submissions merely contain one or two lines on the issue.

What is the status of G7’s commitments?

The report reveals that no G7 country offered climate finance in addition to meeting UN development aid commitments. Only the United Kingdom (UK) made clear pledges to prioritize vulnerable countries.

While the USA and UK have announced a new, higher climate finance target in 2021 and 2019 respectively, Canada is expected to announce a new climate package soon, it states.

 According to the report, Japan has contributed the most ($ 11.02 bn) under the promised $100 billion annually followed by Germany ($ 8.13 billion) and France ($6.50 bn). However, the analysis says that Japan massively over-reports climate finance.

"If each of the G7 leaders at their Cornwall summit on 11 June does not clearly announce a significant increase in climate finance to meet and exceed their decade-old promise to provide $100 billion by 2020 and to scale up trillions of dollars for a global green recovery, it can only be interpreted as a massive breach of trust and responsibility,” said Tasneem Essop, Executive Director at Climate Action Network 

Luxembourg and Sweden are at top of the list

According to the analysis, Luxembourg and Sweden top the table but there is still room for improvement in their ex-ante reporting. Five countries- Austria, Greece, Japan, the Czech Republic and Slovakia received no points since their reports submitted to UNFCCC are extremely poor, the analysis notes.

Out of the 24 countries, 11 countries obtained only a quarter or less of the possible points. This group includes countries such as Denmark, the Netherlands and Norway- countries which usually picture themselves as leaders in international development, it states.

The report points out that only three countries – Sweden, Norway and Luxembourg -- are providing climate finance on top of the UN commitment to provide 0.7% of gross national income (GNI) as an official development assessment.

The way ahead

The analysis suggests that developed countries should make a clear roadmap and outline each countries’ fair share of the $100 billion financial pledge ahead of COP26. It advocates that the climate finance provided by developed countries should be new and additional to their commitments of official development assistance.

It also recommends that all countries, especially the G7 nations should commit to at least double their public climate finance by 2025.

“We look forward to the G7 delivering on promises to generate financial support to help poorer nations start a green industrial revolution and withstand the worsening impacts of climate change. With the covid-19 pandemic exacerbating existing challenges for our countries, international support and solidarity are especially critical right now,” said Sonam P. Wangdi, the Chair of the LDC Group. 

This was first published in CarbonCopy.

End new oil and gas projects to reach net-zero emissions by 2050: IEA

IEA has proposed to end new oil and gas projects to reach net-zero emissions by 2050

No investment in new oil and gas projects should be approved if the world is to reach net-zero emission targets by 2050 and limit warming to 1.5-degree celsius according to the International Energy Agency’s (IEA) report. It has also predicted that by 2035, there will be no sales of new internal combustion engine passenger cars, and by 2040, the global electricity sector will have already reached net-zero emissions.

The report is the world’s first comprehensive study on how to transition to a net zero energy system by 2050. The special report is designed to inform the high-level negotiations that will take place at the 26th Conference of the Parties (COP26) of the United Nations Climate Change Framework Convention in Glasgow in November.

Are the commitments made by countries enough?

According to the report, commitments made by countries till date are not enough to achieve the global pathway to net-zero by 2050. More countries have joined the race to net-zero emissions, however, most pledges are not underpinned by new-term policies and measures, it noted.

It revealed that even if the countries successfully achieve their pledges, it would leave around 22 billion tonnes of CO2 emissions worldwide by 2050.

The report emphasized that advanced economies need to reach net zero before emerging markets and developing economies and assist others to fulfil their targets.

“The clean energy transition is for and about people,” said Dr Fatih Birol, the IEA Executive Director. “Our Roadmap shows that the enormous challenge of rapidly transitioning to a net zero energy system is also a huge opportunity for our economies. The transition must be fair and inclusive, leaving nobody behind. We have to ensure that developing economies receive the financing and technological know-how they need to build out their energy systems to meet the needs of their expanding populations and economies in a sustainable way.”

Massive deployment of clean energy

The pathway stressed the need to scale up renewable energy technologies. It suggested increasing solar and wind capacity rapidly this decade and reaching annual additions of 630 GW of solar photovoltaics and 390 GW of wind by 2030. This new estimate is four times more than the record levels set in 2020.

“This report is a blaring siren for governments across the world that they can no longer drag their feet and need to get serious about deploying renewables. The scale of wind energy ramp-up needed to achieve net zero by 2050 is massive and can’t be overstated,” said Joyce Lee, Head of Policy and Projects at the Global Wind Energy Council (GWEC)

According to the pathway, the share of fossil fuels in the global energy supply would need to fall from around four-fifths currently to one-fifth by 2050. Solar would become the single biggest energy source — or 20% of global energy demand followed by wind power.

It also found out that two‐thirds of the total energy supply in 2050 will be from wind, solar, bioenergy, geothermal and hydro energy.

The IEA’s report noted that the investment and spending received by countries for economic recovery post-COVD-19 should align with the net-zero pathway. To accelerate the electricity sector transition to solar and wind, it recommended targets and competitive auctions of renewables. It also suggested fossil fuel subsidy phase-out, carbon pricing and other market reforms to ensure appropriate price signals.

Stake on new technologies in 2050

According to the report, reaching net zero by 2050 requires rapid deployment of new technologies that are not in the market yet. Most of the CO2 emissions reduction through 2030 in the pathway comes from technologies that are already in the picture. However, for the 2050 pathways only half of the reductions come from technologies that are currently at the “demonstration or prototype phase.”

Innovation over the next ten years should be accompanied by research and development (R&D) and better infrastructure that the technologies will need. This comprises new pipelines to transport captured CO2 emissions and systems to move hydrogen around and between ports and industrial zones.

The report suggested reprioritizing the government’s spending by investing more in electrification, hydrogen, bioenergy and carbon capture, utilisation and storage. These critical areas receive only one-third of the R&D funding.

It recommended mobilising around USD 90 billion of public money globally to complete a portfolio of demonstration projects before 2030. Currently, only USD 25 billion is budgeted for that period. The deployment of new technologies will create new major industries, thereby boosting commercial and employment opportunities.

Emission reductions linked to consumer choices

According to the pathway, 55% of the cumulative emissions reductions are linked to consumer choices such as purchasing an electric vehicle and using energy-efficient technologies in the house. Behavioural changes such as replacing car trips with walking, cycling or public transport will also help to provide around 4% of the cumulative emissions reductions.

It proposed that emissions reductions should go hand-in-hand with energy access for all by 2030. One of the significant parts of the pathway is to provide electricity to around 785 million people who have no access to it and clean cooking solutions to 2.6 billion people.

This costs around $40 billion a year, equal to around 1% of average annual energy sector investment. It also brings major health benefits through reductions in indoor air pollution, cutting the number of premature deaths by 2.5 million a year.

Organic Solar Cells: Lightweight and flexible solar cells to bring ease of use way up

Organic Solar Cell| Photo: IITB Monash

In future, energy consumption is going to rise continuously especially amongst developing countries that aspire to have the same benefits as developed countries. One major potential contributor to the overall energy picture is to harvest solar energy, as it is a highly abundant resource. 

A majority of solar panels used at homes and businesses are standard silicon solar panels. They weigh around 20 to 30 kg which limits their application. However, there is an alternative which is lightweight and more flexible- Organic Solar Cells (OSCs). 

Unlike Photo Voltaic (PV) which has a high carbon footprint , OSCs are much greener. Moreover, OSCs are flexible and lightweight and they can be used in locations inaccessible to the heavier silicon PV. They can be printed and stuck onto buildings, car windows and can also be used for mobile charging

The recent increase in the efficiency of organic solar cells to 26% in low light by Armor- a French organic PV specialist, has put more onus on this technology.

With climate change happening right now, it has become more crucial for countries to invest in renewable energy and cut down their fossil fuels budget. But even amongst renewable energy, there are differences on how green they really are. 

OSC promises low carbon footprint

One of the major causes of climate change due to CO2 and other greenhouse gases (GHGs) is burning fossil fuels. However, replacing fossil fuels with renewable sources of energy is not sufficient. The creation and operation of renewable energy sources result in CO2 emission and other GHGs.

CO2e(CO2 and other GHGs) emission per kilowatt-hour for fossil fuel sources is approximately 400-500 g kWh-1. For renewable sources, the values are much lower but not negligible. 

In case of silicon photovoltaics, values differ according to the technology and location of manufacturing- with values roughly around 50 gkWh-1. 

In the manufacturing of traditional solar panels, metallurgical-grade silicon is purified into polysilicon which creates silicon tetrachloride. Recycling tetrachloride to extract silicon needs less energy but the reprocessing equipment required is quite expensive. 

Some industries discharge the byproduct into water streams. If exposed to water, silicon tetrachloride releases hydrochloric acid, acidifying the soil and emitting harmful fumes.

In the case of OSC, the carbon footprint is less. According to Dr Karl Leo, professor at Technische Universität Dresden, Germany, OSCs can reduce carbon footprint “dramatically, and it has a super-low CO2 emission.”

A study by German testing institute- TÜV Rheinland, revealed that carbon footprint from OSC is 14.52 kg CO2e per square metre. The study took into account OSCs produced by German based technology leader in organic photovoltaics, Heliatek. 

It also revealed that the organic solar films allow to recover the CO2e arising during the entire life cycle (from manufacture to disposal), after less than 3 months.

How do OSCs work?

Picture: Sigma Aldrich

Like traditional solar cell technology, OSCs convert the sun's energy into electricity. The concept of OSC technology emerged from the field of organic-light emitting diodes (OLEDs) which is used in television and phone screens.

An OLED screen consists of a layer of organic molecules which when applied with an electric current produces light. 

OSCs on the other hand when exposed to light generates electric current. They are made up of multiple layers, one of them is the acceptor layer. When OSC is exposed to sunlight, an electron is released from the layer of organic molecules. The acceptor layer’s job is to pass that electron onto the electrode. This leads to build-up charge which generates electricity.

The most common material used for acceptors in OSC is fullerene- a molecule composed of 60 carbon atoms joined together in a structure. However, the efficiency with fullerene acceptor is limited to 10% due to which many researchers are looking for non-fullerene alternatives.

Dr Soumitra Satapathi, associate professor at IIT Roorkee told CarbonCopy that the current thrust of the research is the development of low bandgap polymers and non-fullerene acceptors. In addition to these, small molecules which are capable of showing singlet fission-an exciton(electron-hole pair) multiplication process can significantly improve the efficiency of OSCs, he said. 

Will OSCs replace silicon solar cells?

With excellent stability, low generation cost of electricity and high efficiencies of above 20%, crystalline silicon solar is dominating the Photovoltaics (PV). In spite of being lightweight and flexible, OSCs are not able to compete with PV in all the three parameters.

According to Leo, “They (OSCs) are addressing very different markets where lightweight and flexibility are asked for, e.g. in building integration.”

OSCs have to carve a new niche for themselves where they can replace inorganic PV technologies. One of such niches is building-integrated photovoltaics (BIPVs) where OSCs can be used on the roofs and walls of storage buildings. 

Since BIPVs are designed to carry lighter loads, crystalline silicon modules are not appropriate for them. However, OSC as a plastic foil with a surface density of less than 1 kgm-2 can be used because it weighs at least ten times less than crystalline silicon modules. 

In spite of the small market for BIPV as compared to the PV, BIPV could still reach a market size of USD 59.5 billion by 2028 which is a very attractive quickly growing market.

Owing to their flexibility, OSCs can also be used for consumer applications such as clothing, bags and in camping products. 

Despite being limited to some niches, it is interesting to speculate whether OSCs will be able to enter the mainstream PV market.  According to Leo, “In the very long term, if organics would reach very high efficiency, they might compete, but this is not very likely in the near and mid-term.”

A study published last year pointed out that OSCs can only compete with crystalline silicon if it reaches the following parameters- “module efficiency around 20%, lifetime of more than 20 years, and cost well below silicon.” 

Results from laboratories and companies show that OSC can reach a ‘20 years lifetime’ perimeter most easily. Cost-wise OSC is more expensive than mainstream technology crystalline silicon, the study noted. 

According to the study, the cost difference is not surprising since all tools and materials for OSC are mass-produced for the first time whereas silicon PV has been in the market for a long time. 

OSC research in India

The Council of Scientific and Industrial Research (CSIR)- National Physical Laboratory has taken many research and development activities for the development of “efficient stable solar cells”. 

According to the data, CSIR group has started working in design and synthesis of donor and acceptor materials for organic solar cells to improve the power conversion efficiencies and lifeline of devices.

Many institutes in India are also working on OSC. Researchers from the Indian Institute of Technology, Kanpur have developed 12x12 cm2 sub-modules from organic solar PV cells on a paper substrate. It can be used to power flexible electronic devices under an indoor lighting environment. 

OSCs market trends

According to Fortune business insights report, the global organic cells market size was USD 55.63 million in 2019 and it was projected to grow from USD 44.9 million in 2020 to USD 101.29 million in 2027 at a CAGR of 12.30%. However, due to the pandemic, the global organic solar cells market will exhibit a huge decline of -19,2% in 2020, it said.

India imports around 80% of its solar cells and modules from China along with other equipment. Many projects in India and worldwide were delayed due to the initial lockdown of manufacturing activities in China, followed by lockdowns implemented in other countries, the report stated. 

In 2019, BIPV segment held a majority of organic cells market share followed by portable electronics, the report highlighted. It said that better government policies and guidelines regarding enhanced renewable installation are going to reinforce BIPV installations in the coming time. 

Will OSC be overshadowed by perovskite?

Perovskite is a rapidly expanding class of solar cells. There has been a lot of research going on because of their high efficiency- even higher than silicon in some cases.

It was found viable for PV 10-12 years ago, said Don Scott, business development director at Power Roll- a UK-based flexible solar film developer, adding, since then the amount of research and efficiency has gone up dramatically- from 1-2% to 16-17% in the labs.

“Compared to any material in the history of PV, the curve of perovskite has seen the fastest advancement in efficiency in the shortest amount of time,” he said.

However, there are some major bottlenecks related to perovskite. One of them is stability. They are highly sensitive to ambient air and moisture and they break down quickly on exposure. To protect them, they have to be put inside an encapsulation film as soon as they come out from the plant.

Another challenge is the use of toxic lead which is a concern from an environmental perspective.

Scott is not sure whether OSCs will be overshadowed by perovskite in the future but he emphasized that a lot of research is going on to overcome the challenges of perovskite.

Karl is of the same opinion as Scott. According to Karl, “Perovskite has super-high efficiency, but currently, they contain lead which is unacceptable for many. Furthermore, there are stability issues.”

OSC for developing countries

India receives sunshine for around 250 up to 300 days per year which puts it in a good position to harness solar energy to meet the rising electricity demand. The country receives approximately 5000 trillion kWh solar energy annually.

It has pledged itself to fast and large-scale renewable energy capacity addition. Under the nationally determined contributions (NDCs) India aspires to achieve 40% share of installed power generation capacity from non-fossil fuel sources by 2030. 

The country wants to increase its solar capacity to 280 GW by 2030-31 from about 39 GW currently, making it over a third of its overall power requirement. India is chasing a renewable capacity target of 175 GW by 2022 and 450 GW by 2030, from about 93 GW currently, as part of its commitment under the Paris Climate Accords.

With an efficiency of above 20%, crystalline Si solar cells rule the market. However, these cells consume a large amount of energy in the manufacturing process- extremely hot furnaces around 1,500 degree C are needed to develop high purity silicon. This increases the payback time.

Unlike Si solar technology, OSCs are less energy-intensive and owing to their thinness and flexibility they can be manufactured by simply printing the layers of the cell onto a backing such as paper and plastic. 

OSCs usually have lower energy payback time (few months) than silicon solar cells (2-3 years) considering its cost-effective fabrication process, said Satapathi, adding, therefore, India has huge potential in this technology. 

According to him, this will be helpful for building-integrated photovoltaics, portable electronics, defence and also Internet of Things (IoT) devices.

For developing countries that do not have access to electrical grids and the finance to build one, OSCs are a great alternative. With low upfront investment and certainly low product shipping costs, OSCs can provide electricity in smaller quantities required for mobile charging, home lighting and in textile industries.

Additionally, if PV solutions require very skilled engineers for installation, it is going to be a problem for people living in rural areas and farmers because of the complications and cost involved, said Scott.

According to him, “For a developing country like India, we need to bring the cost way down and bring ease of use way up. If we are able to do that we can enable new markets, new application of OSC right at grassroots of people's daily life”