64 countries cut their fossil CO2 emissions during 2016-2019, but the rate of reduction needs to increase tenfold to meet the Paris Agreement
While countries are making efforts to cut carbon dioxide emission since the commencement of the Paris Agreement, the actions are not “large-scale enough” yet and the emissions are still increasing in many countries, according to a new study. The study is important because it is the first global stocktake by researchers to examine the progress in reducing fossil CO2 emissions since the Paris Agreement.
The study titled ‘Fossil CO2 emissions in the post-COVID era’, was conducted by researchers from the University of East Anglia (UEA), Stanford University and the Global Carbon Project.
Fossil CO2 emissions in 5 years post the Paris Agreement
The study revealed that 64 countries cut their CO2 emissions during 2016-19 but the rate of reduction needs to increase tenfold to meet the Paris Agreement.
It said that the annual cuts of 0.16 billion tonnes of CO2 are only 10% of the 1-2 billion tonnes of CO2 cuts that are needed globally every year to fight climate change.
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| Change in fossil CO2 emissions in the five years since the adoption of Paris Agreement| Photo: Study |
According to the study, 99 upper-middle economies were responsible for 51% of global emissions in 2019 with China alone contributing 28% of the global total.
Of the 99 countries, 30 have shown a decline in the emissions during 2016-19 compared to 2011-15, suggesting that efforts are in motion by countries to cut emissions, the study said.
The credit for curbing emission goes to the growing number of climate change laws and policies in place in the past five years pre-COVID-19. There are now more than 2000 climate laws and policies worldwide, it said.
In the lower middle and low economy group of 79 countries, the emissions originating are much lower than in the other two groups. The study pointed out that CO2 emissions in this group has grown by 0.18 million tonnes on average each year with no significant slowdown at the group level.
2020 is a ‘pause button’ that cannot realistically continue
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| Global CO2 emissions Photo: Study |
According to the study, during COVID-19 lockdown the global emissions of CO2 decreased by 2.6 million tonnes. The largest share of the decrease owes to the decline in transport emissions, it said.
It pointed out that in most countries emissions decreased by an average of 27% at the peak of the country’s confinement. Even by the end of 2020, lockdown implemented by governments in various countries led to a decrease in daily emissions by 7% below 2019 levels.
The researchers said that 2020 is a ‘pause button’ that could not continue practically while the world is totally dependent on fossil fuels and unsustainable policies.
The road ahead
The study noted that while measures taken to tackle the COVID-19 pandemic would cut emissions by about 7% in 2020, they would not, on their own, be responsible for causing lasting decreases in emissions. These temporary measures have little influence on the fossil fuel-based infrastructure that sustains the world economy
Researchers pointed out that a full bounce-back in 2021 to the previous CO2 emissions level appears unlikely. They suggested that unless COVID-19 recovery directs investments towards green infrastructure, emissions would likely start rocketing again within a few years.
The study revealed that in most countries investment post-COVID is majorly dominated by fossil fuels in contradiction with climate commitments. Only few countries- the European Union, Denmark, France, the United Kingdom, Germany and Switzerland, have so far implemented substantial green stimulus packages with limited investments in fossil-based activities.
Prof Rob Jackson of Stanford University co-author of the study said, “Commitments alone aren’t enough. Countries need to align post-COVID incentives with climate targets this decade, based on sound science and credible implementation plans.”
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